De investeringer som Jyske Banks kunder, på Jyske Banks anbefaling eller i fuldmagtsforhold, foretager i råvarer, er som udgangspunkt langsigtede. Vi ser råvarer, som en interessant aktivklasse for investorer, på linje med eksempelvis aktier og obligationer, fordi man opnår en bedre spredning af risikoen i sin portefølje og fordi man, i perioder kan opnå gode afkast.

For så vidt angår de institutionelle kunder, vi investerer i råvarer for, gælder det, at vi er index investorer. Vi investerer i brede råvareindex, som indeholder såvel energi, metaller og ædelmetaller, som fødevarer. Vores fuldmagtskunder har udstukket rammerne for, hvad vi må investere i, og når vi holder os inden for disse rammer, ønsker kunden ikke specifikt at blive gjort bekendt med, hvilke index vi investerer i, forud for investeringen, med mindre andet er aftalt.

Der findes en gruppe af spekulanter, som er mere kortsigtede, trendbaserede mekaniske investorer, som kortsigtet kan påvirke prisdannelsen. Denne tilgang benytter Jyske Bank ikke.

Jyske Bank mener grundlæggende, at det er fundamentale forhold, der på mellemlangt og langt sigte afgør prisen på en vare.

Set som en samlet gruppe er udviklingslandene nettoeksportører af råvarer, hvorfor stigende priser på disse, overordnet er positivt for gruppen. Derfor er det overordnet nok mere fordelingspolitik, der skaber problemer i nogle af disse lande. Spekulation har været en del af det fysiske råvaremarked i århundreder og har netop været set som en del af skabelsen af effektive markeder. Skulle man forbyde spekulation i råvarer, via futures, skal man generelt forbyde al form for spekulation, idet prisudvikling altid kan have uheldige konsekvenser for nogle. Dette vil dog medføre mindre effektive markeder og dermed mindre effektiv prisdannelse.

Vores konklusioner på området svarer derudover ret nøje til konklusionerne i den netop udarbejdede rapport ”Regulation of Commodity Derivatives markets within MiFID – Price formation drivers”. Analysen er gennemført af ISDA, som er en international interesseorganisation med mere end 825 medlemmer, herunder regeringer og overnationale organisationer. Sammenfatningen af hovedkonklusionerne følger uredigeret herunder:

Executive summary

• In the middle and long-term, fundamentals are driving commodity prices and price volatility; transparency is needed in physical markets: the development of reliable and regularly-published statistics in physical markets is crucial, in particular physical market information on the emerging markets.
• Long-term oriented public policies are needed to address the challenges that the demographic pressure will create in the production and in the distribution of basic commodities, especially food.
• Fundamentals are more than just production, consumption, and inventories. They include costs at multiple stages of processing, and unavoidable and unpredictable risks that range across the political, economic, weather, and technological spheres. Volatility is an inherent aspect of commodity markets because of these risks and the impossibility of perfectly aligning the investment and consumption cycles: the business cycle can never be abolished.
• The recent impression of abnormal volatility in commodities markets, particularly in oil, is mostly an artifact of daily changes around a higher price level, which is itself mostly the result of rising marginal production cost. This impression disappears when the higher price level is compensated for by examining volatility as daily % change. Moreover, while volatility increased in both 1990 and 2008 (which is normal in progressing from the peak of an economic cycle into recession), average realized volatility tended to be higher in 1996 to 2000 (before index investors entered commodity markets) than in the period 2000 to 2008.
• Monitoring of abusive trading is crucial and the introduction of a specific definition of inside definition relating to commodity derivatives if the Market Abuse Directive reform shall be supported.
• Futures markets play a decisive role in commodity price discovery, being underlined that a commodity futures is not trading the underlying commodity.
• Commercial entities use futures to hedge, or insure their production, consumption, or working inventories against the uncertain effects of fluctuating prices;
• Long-term financial investors are helpful in the markets not only because they bring liquidity but also because they can bring balance. In equity markets, long-term investors bring stability in issuers’ shareholdings and governance; equally, in commodities markets long term investors also bring stability, especially when the markets have to face short term events that have immediate effects (climate shocks, changes in political situation).
• While they might intensify very short term trends, investors cannot create them; the empirical evidence, which comes from the CFTC, confirms that index investors do not amplify prices away from fundamentals beyond the very short term.